Projo Pats Blog

Since many of the optimists out there have been comparing Matt Cassel's forced emergence as the starter in 2008 to Tom Brady's being pressed into service in place of the injured Drew Bledsoe in 2001, it is interesting to look back at what happened in Brady's first start. The Patriots entered the home game against the Indianapolis Colts at -0-2, well on their way to the road to nowhere. But the Patriot defense took matters into its own hands, forcing four Colts turnovers and allowing Brady to settle into a comfortable groove at quarterback. It was 20-0 at halftime, and the Pats won, 44-13, with Brady going 13 for 23 for a modest 168 yards, no touchdowns and (crucially) no interceptions.

The following week, Brady and company went on the road for the first time, and the results were much different: a 30-10 loss keyed by three New England turnovers, and Brady throwing for less than 100 yards.

Cassel has to start his NFL career on the road, and in about the most hostile environment imaginable, with the Jets fans eager for revenge over Spygate and, if you believe Curt Schilling, for all the glory that New England in general has enjoyed at the expense of New York (the Giants' Super Bowl victory doesn't mellow Jets fans, I'm sure).

We can expect the Patriots to try to build Cassel's confidence early, but the Jets will certainly be expecting that too, so don't expect those short passes to Wes Welker to be as available to Cassel as they were to Tom Brady -- teams had to respect the deep ball with Brady. If Cassel can avoid turnovers early, he and the Patriots have a chance. But you have to like Brett Favre on this stage, in front of his new home crowd for the first time. He should take advantage of New England's secondary at least a couple of times, which he will have to do since Thomas Jones has not had much success running on the Pats in the past.

New York's fans will celebrate this win, but it won't really mean that they have earned anything. In 2001, it took the Patriots until about midseason to become consistent winners with Brady, and it will probably take that long before we have an idea what they are capable of with Cassel. It doesn't look good for this week, but the season is a story that no one can predict.

Here are picks for the other games in this week of intriguing matchups:

Titans at Bengals: The Titans have had such a dispiriting week that it is hard to remember they are the only team in the AFC South with a 1-0 record. Vince Young is back on the wagon and says that he has never wavered about wanting to be a pro football player, but this is Kerry Collins' team for the near future. The Bengals' offense had an embarrassing effort last week at Baltimore, but Carson Palmer has great career numbers against Tennessee, a team that the Bengals routed last year, 35-6. Cincinnati needs a win to avoid going 0-2 while facing games on the road against the Giants next week and the Cowboys two weeks after that. I say they get it. Pick: Bengals

Packers at Lions: Aaron Rodgers passed test number one last week against the Vikings; this one figures to be much easier. Under Mike McCarthy, the Packers are 10-3 against their NFC North division rivals, and 4-0 against the Lions (they've beaten Detroit five straight times overall). It's a good thing for Detroit's run defense that Ryan Grant is dealing with a sore hamstring; they are coming off a week in which they allowed Michael Turner of Atlanta to run for a franchise record 220 yards. Exciting news for baseball fans: Manny Ramirez joins the Lions' starting offensive line this week. Pick: Packers

Raiders at Chiefs: Even considering the injury to you-know-who, it's amazing that the Chiefs might have won if not for a horrendous performance by one of their few established stars -- wide receiver Dwayne Bowe. This week Bowe will once again have Damon Huard throwing to him. Huard, who is 9-9 as a starter over the last two seasons, might soon lose his job to third-teamer Tyler Thigpen, so he'll have plenty of motivation. The Raiders, humiliated at home on Monday night, already seem to be in disarray. Look for Kansas City to pick up its first regular-season win since in more than 10 months. Pick: Chiefs

Giants at Rams: The Giants looked -- especially in the first half -- like a team ready to revert back to the form of a Super Bowl champion last week, and although I still don't think they are that good, they'll probably look outstanding again while facing an awful St. Louis team. The Giants are looking for their 12th consecutive road win. When starting quarterback Marc Bulger says his goal for this week is to "prove we're not that bad," that's not that good a sign. Pick: Giants

Colts at Vikings: Two teams with big hopes each look to avoid going 0-2 in a matchup of contrasting styles. New acquisition Jared Allen and the vaunted Minnesota defense had a disappointing start to the season against Green Bay; Allen not even recording a tackle in the game. Peyton Manning typically doesn't get sacked much, but his offensive line remains in a state of disarray, something that showed pretty obviously against the Bears last week. Adrian Peterson and the Vikings offense also has to look at what the Bears did against the Indy run defense last week -- more than 180 yards rushing -- and like what they see. The Colts last week lost a 21-game September and October winning streak; I see an early-season losing streak in their future. Pick: Vikings

Saints at Redskins: Drew Brees versus Jason Campbell -- unless things change a lot from last week, it's a mismatch. Redskins coach Jim Zorn says it will take time for his new system to begin sinking in. The Saints, meanwhile, had two substantial losses this week: wide receiver Marques Colston (for a month and a half) and defensive lineman Hollis Thomas (for the season). Still, it says here that New Orleans has enough good vibes going to get to 2-0. Pick: Saints

Bears at Panthers: Week 1's biggest surprises meet. The long-ridiculed Chicago offense, led by rookie running back Matt Forte, looked like a real force against the Colts on Sunday night, but the Panthers defense stands a better chance of making quarterback Kyle Orton work. The Bears defense, meanwhile, got some locker-room material this week from former receiver Muhsin Muhammad, who trashed the team as a place receivers go to die. The Panthers will remain without suspended receiver Steve Smith, and their home field has not been much of an advantage under head coach Jon Fox. Expect points to be hard to come by. Pick: Bears

Bills at Jaguars: Buffalo is riding high after burying Seattle in its season opener, while Jacksonville is coming off an ugly loss and will be playing without three-fifths of its starting offensive line. Things are lining up well for the Bills, but the elements may not be working in their favor: The forecast calls for highs in the 90s, and the Jaguars are very good in the Florida heat of September. Pick: Jaguars

Chargers at Broncos: Blowing it at home against Carolina last week was rough enough, but here comes a date with the Denver Broncos, a team that looked like a threat to San Diego's stranglehold on the AFC West. The Chargers overcame a slow start last season, but they don't want to go there again. Antonio Gates still isn't quite himself, and the Broncos get Brandon Marshall back into Jay Cutler's arsenal of receivers. Pick: Broncos

Dolphins at Cardinals: Amazing fact -- the Cardinals have not started a season 2-0 since 1991. But the Dolphins have lost 10 consecutive games on the road, and they present an opportunity that Arizona can't pass up. Pick: Cardinals

49ers at Seahawks: Seattle enters the second week with an injury crisis of late season proportions. Matt Hasselbeck will have to make do without his four best wide receivers, his starting running back and the right side of his offensive line. But the Seahawks couldn't have dreamed up a better opponent than the 49ers, a team that they beat by a combined 49-3 last season. That and the Seattle crowd should get them through. Pick: Seahawks

Falcons at Buccaneers: Last week, the Bucs defense looked vulnerable against the Saints while the Falcons offense looked tremendous against the Lions. Tampa Bay might be without linebacker Derrick Brooks this week. The Buccaneers will tap Brian Griese to play quarterback after benching Jeff Garcia. This looked like a sure Tampa Bay victory two weeks ago, but I'm changing my mind today. Pick: Falcons

Steelers at Browns: The Steelers have made a mockery of this rivalry in recent years, going 15-1 in their last 16 meetings with the Browns. Cleveland might be feeling the pressure already after losing their home opener to the Cowboys and now facing the possibility of going 0-2 with eight road games still remaining. Banged-up Ben Roethlisberger should have a good time throwing against a Browns safety that was bad last week and will be without strong safety Sean Jones this week. Pick: Steelers

Ravens at Texans: In a game moved back to Monday because of Hurricane Ike, rookie quarterback Joe Flacco faces Mario Williams and the Texans. Expect Baltimore to stay conservative with running backs Ray Rice and Willis McGahee (making his first start of the season), especially since Houston had problems with the Titans' running game last week. Houston's Matt Schaub was awful last week, and the Ravens aren't the defense to give him a break this week. Pick: Ravens

Eagles at Cowboys: Terrell Owens stirred up the pot again by making (you would think) needless comments about Donovan McNabb, and Jessica Simpson seems to be everywhere these days talking about her boy Romo. The Cowboys probably don't need distractions as they head into this showdown of teams that looked like Super Bowl contenders in Week 1, but distractions might not be all that relevant to this team of big talents and big egos. The Eagles have shut the Cowboys down in their last two meetings at Texas Stadium, but they won't do it this time. Pick: Cowboys

 Tags  Football Today

---