Projo Pats Blog

Patriots and Raiders. Few franchises that are not division rivals have such a history of grievance. There was Sugar Bear Hamilton's roughing-the-passer call on Ken Stabler in the 1976 playoffs, which a lot of Pats fans still blame for costing their team its first trip to the Super Bowl. There was Matt Millen decking Pats GM Patrick Sullivan on the sidelines following a 1985 playoff victory for the Pats in Los Angeles. Actually most Patriots fans thought that one was pretty funny. And there was the "Tuck Rule" game.

That Tuck Rule game -- when Tom Brady seemed to have fumbled away New England's chances of winning the 2001 Divisional Playoff in Foxboro, only be saved by an obscure (but correctly interpreted) rule -- is sometimes described as the beginning of some sort of curse that befell the Raiders (Union Leader). Even though Oakland made the Super Bowl the following season, they were destroyed in that game by Tampa Bay, and fell into a hole after that (a Black Hole, if you will). But as one insightful Raiders fan pointed out on a team bulletin board this week, the franchise actually has a losing record overall going back 25 seasons -- since the team last won the Super Bowl. The Raiders have had only nine winning seasons in that time, against 11 losing seasons.

But the Raiders did at least make the playoffs for the next two seasons after that Super Bowl win -- it really fell off the tracks for them after that Patrick Sullivan-Matt Millen incident in the '85 playoffs. Since that time, the Raiders have had seven winning seasons, against 11 losing seasons and three .500 seasons, and they've gone 170-205 overall. Before Millen hit Sullivan, the Raiders had an all-time record of 259-101, a .719 winning percentage. So maybe the Patriots really did curse the Raiders. But if you look at the record, you could make the case that Patrick Sullivan was the guy who set the curse. And Matt Millen? Hasn't he had a role in wrecking teams somewhere else?

THE MAN WHO WASN'T THERE: It tells you something about the Raiders when the man widely viewed as their best player is a guy who sees very little action because teams won't throw the ball near him. But that's the case with cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, who is, as our Shalise Manza Young wrote today, underrated in large part because he can't rack up interceptions if he doesn't get to defend any passes. Asomugha has been pretty vocal in his frustration with the dead-end situation in Oakland these past few years, and he continued to be during a conference call yesterday: "My frustration level has hit a different level this season than it has hit in any other season. I know that we still have three games left and we still have a chance to leave with some modicum of respect. If we can go out in these next three games and play with some pride and more accountability, then we have a chance." (Worcester Telegram and Gazette)

DRAFT-DAY WIZARDRY: Mike Reiss of The Globe explains how the Patriots traded a third-round pick in 2006 (which turned out to be Mario Henderson, who will start on the Raiders' offensive line this week) and ended up with a second-round pick next season.

CAN'T KEEP A CRAZY MAN DOWN: Chad Ocho Cinco, whose own season is not going much better than that of the 1-11-1 Bengals, tells the Cincinnati Enquirer that he is confident things will turn around next year.

ANYONE'S GUESS: The starting quarterback for the Lions this Sunday against the Colts? (Detroit Free Press) Well, it could be Drew Stanton. Or Daunte Culpepper. Or Dan Orlovsky. Or ... Drew Henson?

MORE THAN A GAME: Carolina Panthers owner Jerry Richardson has been placed on a waiting list for a heart transplant (Charlotte Observer). Richardson has been at the hospital since last week.

SOUNDS SERIOUS: Vikings quarterback Gus Frerotte reportedly has a fracture in his lower back and will miss a week or two (Minneapolis Star Tribune). A week or two with a fracture in the lower back?

THIS WEEK'S PICKS: It was a so-so, 10-6 week last week. Here's what I think will happen this week, with the home teams listed in all caps:

Saints over BEARS: These two teams will be fighting for their playoff lives on Thursday night football in Chicago, a place that has not been kind to New Orleans the past couple years. The forecast is for cold weather, with temperatures in the 20s, but without any precipitation or substantial wind, so the conditions should be fine for New Orleans' potent offense to keep moving, whether it's Drew Brees' passing or Pierre Thomas' running. Chicago's last three games against contending teams have not gone well.

FALCONS over Bucs: You think you know a team, and then you get the Tampa Bay Bucs on Monday night, giving up nearly 300 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to the Carolina Panthers. And now comes Michael Turner, the Atlanta Falcons and their second-ranked rushing offense. Pride alone should lead Tampa Bay to turn in a better defensive effort than the Bucs did last week, and Tampa Bay should be able to score some points, too. But home teams have been unstoppable (10-0) in NFC South games this season, and Atlanta has an extra day of rest working on its side, so I've got to pick the Falcons.

Redskins over BENGALS: Even seemingly easy foils like the Bengals have been a challenge for Washington, which has been a mediocre team since the first week of October. In that sense, maybe it is a good thing that the Redskins had the little Clinton Portis-Jim Zorn flair up this week. The two have since met to mend fences, and if Portis is the competitor that we all think he is, he should have a big day in Cincinnati.

Titans over TEXANS: Houston is on a real roll, having won three straight games after playing Indianapolis tough on the road four weeks ago. Now they get a shot at Tennessee, a team that Houston never beats and that is looking to lock up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. This is a classic strength-versus-strength matchup, with Houston's fourth-ranked pass offense facing Tennessee's third-ranked pass defense. Don't be shocked to see an upset, but the Titans have a big edge with Chris Johnson and LenDale White attacking the suspect Texans defense.

Packers over JAGUARS: This meaningless matchup of disappointing teams seems to favor Green Bay, since the Jaguars' offense has been hit hard by the suspension of wide receiver Matt Jones and the possibly season-ending thumb injury suffered by running back Fred Taylor.

DOLPHINS over 49ers: San Francisco is now 3-2 with Shaun Hill as the starting quarterback, and last week's victory over the Jets demonstrated that they are a dangerous team to face down the stretch. Hill should have some opportunities against the Dolphins, but he will probably also feel a lot of pressure from NFL sacks leader Joey Porter and the rest of the Miami pass rush; San Francisco has allowed more sacks this year than any team this side of Detroit and Cincinnati.

Seahawks over RAMS: How do you predict what will happen in a battle of 2-11 teams? You can't, but I'll pick Seattle because they put on a good show last week, and I think they want to give Mike Holmgren at least one more win before he heads out the door. Of course if this one doesn't work out, they still get the Jets at home in Week 16.

JETS over Bills: The Buffalo offense has completely shut down the last two weeks, scoring just six total points against the 49ers and the Dolphins. The Jets' offense has fallen off, too, as New York has lost to Denver and San Francisco. But Buffalo has lost six of its last seven games and should be a good tonic for what has been ailing Brett Favre and company.

Chargers over CHIEFS: When the Chiefs came within a missed two-point conversion of winning in San Diego back in Week 10, we should have known the Chargers were in big trouble. It could be a wet and windy day this time around, in Kansas City, but it's still hard to pick against Philip Rivers having a big day at the expense of the Chiefs' 29th-ranked pass defense.

COLTS over Lions: Do I have to explain?

CARDINALS over Vikings: The matchups seem to favor Arizona in this battle of division leaders, which could decide which team is the number three seed and which is the number four in the NFC playoffs. Minnesota excels at stuffing the run, but the Cardinals can't run the ball anyway; Arizona's main weakness on defense is against the pass, and we can't expect Tarvaris Jackson to exploit that for the Vikes. Kurt Warner will be playing for the Cardinals, and that ought to be enough.

Steelers over RAVENS: Buckle your chinstraps for this meeting of the league's two best defenses, and statistically two of the 10 best in the last 20 years, with first place in the AFC North (and perhaps New England's wild-card hopes) hanging in the balance. The Steelers, who haven't won in Baltimore since 2002, can wrap up the division by doing that this year. And they have been better on the road lately than at home. Baltimore has a better offense than Pittsburgh, but not good enough to put up points in this game. It could come down to a big play on defense, and I'll guess that the Steelers make it.

PANTHERS over Broncos: Jay Cutler brings one of the NFL's hottest pass offenses into Carolina for a meeting with one of its hottest run offenses. While Carolina took control of the NFC South on Monday night, they still have a tough road ahead to close the deal, with road games in the final two weeks against the Giants and the Saints. If they got 299 yards against Tampa Bay, they should be able to shred Denver's weak run defense; plus, the Panthers have a lot more on the line.

Patriots over RAIDERS: If the Raiders play like they did in surprising the Broncos three weeks ago, they have a chance, but they generally seem to be coming apart at the seams. Oakland's offensive ineptitude means that the Raiders should not be able to take advantage of the Pats' defensive vulnerabilities.

Giants over COWBOYS: Expect Dallas' up-and-down season to take a nasty plunge here. The Giants will be looking to prove that they aren't the Cowboys of last year, and I think there will; Dallas seems to always fall apart in December, and there must be something to that. The Dallas secondary was really banged up against Pittsburgh last week, which should help Eli Manning make up for the loss of Brandon Jacobs.

EAGLES over Browns: The chief beneficiary of the Cowboys' demise might be the Eagles, assuming they can beat Washington and Dallas in the final two weeks. While Philadelphia is looking toward an unlikely playoff run (maybe that temporary Donovan McNabb benching really did work), Cleveland has its sights firmly set on next season.

 Tags  Football Today Matt Millen Patrick Sullivan

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