Projo Pats Blog

Journal photo / Mary Murphy

Is it just me, or have the Patriots played an awful lot of football in the rain this season? If you look at the current forecast for Sunday afternoon in Foxboro, the best thing you can say is that it doesn't appear that it will be snowing during the game. What the Patriots and the Cardinals could see are conditions similar to those in the last game at Gillette Stadium, when the Patriots played the Steelers in the midst of a bitter drenching.

The weather should definitely have an outcome on this game, especially since the way to beat both of these teams is to pass on them. The Cardinals and the Patriots are last and second-to-last in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed this season -- Arizona has given up 31, and New England 26. (The Colts, who have given up the fewest, have given up five, to give you some comparison.) But the Cardinals would seem to be the team that would be most impacted by lousy weather. Their offense is built entirely around the pass --- Arizona is second in the NFL in overall pass offense, and 32nd (dead last) in rushing offense. The Cardinals also rely more on big plays -- with a 7.8 yards per completion average that is fifth in the NFL, compared to New England's middle-of-the-road 6.9 yards-per-completion average. The short passes to Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk should still be there for Matt Cassel, no matter the conditions.

Arizona would figure to be a huge challenge for the Patriots' depleted secondary with Kurt Warner throwing to receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin -- especially since the Pats haven't put much pressure on quarterbacks this season. As Karen Guregian of the Herald wrote today, the teams that have had success stopping the Cardinals passing game -- the Giants, the Vikings, the Eagles, the Jets -- all were able to make Warner uncomfortable in the pocket. The Cardinal passing attack could still be too much for New England to handle, but Mother Nature should be a big help.

MORE ON THE PASSING GAME: Pro Bowl receivers Welker and Boldin enter the league first and second, respectively, in the NFL in yards after the catch (Boston Globe). Fitzgerald and Boldin are on pace to become the fourth set of teammates in NFL history to finish with 100 catches each in a single season.

HELP FOR THE DEFENSE? Two unemployed veteran defensive players visited the Patriots yesterday: cornerback Brian Kelly, recently cut by the Lions; and defensive end Erasmus James, a former first-round pick of the Vikings (Boston Herald).

WHO'S ON THE LINE? Matt Light missed practice yesterday, and his status for the Sunday game remains in question (Boston Globe).

TAKING IT IN STRIDE: Welker and Stephen Gostkowski didn't sound overexcited when discussing their selections to the Pro Bowl (projo.com), and Richard Seymour wasn't complaining publicly about being denied a spot on the roster (Boston Herald). Gostkowski, in true Patriot fashion, gave much of the credit for his success to long snapper Lonie Paxton and holder Chris Hanson (Manchester Union Leader).

NOW THAT'S A FAN: Not many people can say they have had season tickets for the entire history of the Patriots franchise, but Robert Newton can (Boston Globe).

HOPE FOR TONIGHT? Not many Patriots fans are counting on help from the Jacksonville Jaguars tonight when they face the Indianapolis Colts, but we now know that the Colts will be short-handed with the loss of Marvin Harrison to a hamstring injury (Indianapolis Star).

HE JUST WON'T GO AWAY: Once again we find ourselves surprised by the news that Adam "Pacman" Jones' season is not over after all. Jones, who was thought to have been lost for the season when he was hurt against Pittsburgh, now looks likely to return to the Cowboys for Saturday's big game against Baltimore (Dallas Morning News).

WAIT AND SEE: Tampa Bay hopes to have Jeff Garcia starting at quarterback when the Bucs host the Chargers this weekend, but the team has no idea whether Garcia's injured calf will allow him to play (Tampa Tribune).

I CAN'T BELIEVE WE'RE STILL TALKING ABOUT THIS: There seems to be no good argument for reinserting Gus Frerotte into the starting quarterback job in Minnesota, but head coach Brad Childress says he's still considering it anyway (Minneapolis Star Tribune).

TAKE ME BACK: Former number-one overall draft pick Alex Smith says he will be healed from shoulder surgery and ready for camp come summer, but with the 49ers having moved on, he'll have to find a quarterback-starved team to take a chance on him (San Francisco Chronicle).

THE OPPOSITION MATTERS: Last week the Pittsburgh Steelers faced the Baltimore Ravens, who lead the NFL in rushing attempts. The Ravens ran the ball 31 times in the game and picked up 112 yards. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings faced the Arizona Cardinals, who run the ball less than any time other than the Detroit Lions. The Cards rushed seven times in the game for 43 yards. And that is the reason that Minnesota climbed ahead of Pittsburgh in overall run defense, threatening the Steelers' chance to become the first team in 17 years to be first against the run, first against the pass and first overall.

EITHER WAY, IT'S STILL GROSS: Ravens cornerback Frank Walker has defended himself against charges by Steelers punter Mitch Berger that Walker spat in Berger's face (specifically, into his mouth) by saying that it was "just a slobber moment." (Carroll County Times)

STEELERS TRANSFER GETS BLESSING: NFL owners unanimously approved the Rooney family's plan to restructure the ownership of the Steelers and keep the franchise under the family's control (Pittsburgh Tribune Review).

REST IN PEACE: Sammy Baugh, a charter member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame who helped revolutionize the game by leading a daring passing attack, died at age 94 (New York Times).

A BIG VOID: The Carolina Panthers are likely to be without 345-pound, run-stuffing nose tackle Maake Kemoeatu for Sunday night's game against the Giants (Carolina Growl).

SAINTS' SEASON OVER, AND SO IS BUSH'S: A week after falling out of playoff contention, the New Orleans Saints placed Reggie Bush on injured reserve (New Orleans Times Picayune).

THIS WEEK'S PICKS: We're stuck at 10-6 lately. Now to pick the winners in what promises to be the biggest week of the regular season. Home teams are listed in caps, as always:

Colts over JAGUARS: Jacksonville proved last week that they haven't quit, beating the Packers on the road. Now come the Colts, who are looking to secure a playoff berth for the seventh consecutive season by winning their eighth consecutive game. The Colts are unlikely to look past Jacksonville, since the Jags beat them in Indianapolis early in the season, and since they'll be eager to improve on last week's shaky victory over Detroit.

COWBOYS over Ravens: A Dallas win on Saturday night would set up all sorts of juicy scenarios -- and of course everyone in these parts realizes that it would put the Patriots in control of their own playoff destiny. If the Cowboys lose this game, then everything you've heard about Tony Romo being a late-season choker, and about the ability of dysfunction to ruin talent, is completely true. But the Cowboys should get a huge emotional lift, coming off last week's impressive win and playing in the last home game at Texas Stadium. It's hard to pick against them.

Bengals over BROWNS: Like last week's Seattle-St. Louis game, the only way to pick this one is to look at which team is playing with more pride. Cleveland showed none of it in Philadelphia last week. The Bengals demonstrated, by beating the sinking Redskins, that at least some of them still want to win. That's good enough for me.

LIONS over Saints: I said I would never do it again (after picking Detroit to beat Jacksonville back in Week 10), but I'm going to go with the fashionable pick of the week. The Lions will go after this one like it's the Super Bowl, and with promising quarterback Dan Orlovsky throwing to Calvin Johnson against the Saints' weak secondary, there is a great chance for the Lions to score points. New Orleans may be a little flat after letting their playoff chances slip away in Chicago. It could come down to the dependable leg of Lions kicker Jason Hanson, who is having a great season. If he kicks the game-winning field goal on Sunday, people will notice.

PATRIOTS over Cardinals: We said what we needed to say above. The Patriots win and, thanks to the Cowboys' coming through on Saturday, inch closer to the postseason.

Steelers over TITANS: The NFL is beginning to figure out Kerry Collins, and that is very bad timing, because Collins is about to run into an immovable barrier in the Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers, meanwhile, are the most confident team in the AFC. Even without Albert Haynesworth, the Titans should limit Pittsburgh's attack, but the Steelers won't need to score much to win this battle for conference supremacy.

49ers over RAMS: Isaac Bruce returns home to the city where he played for 13 years. He'll find a thoroughly demoralized opponent; San Francisco, meanwhile, is a team that is making solid progress late in the season. A win here is another building block toward a possible breakthrough in 2009.

Dolphins over CHIEFS: How about some respect for Chad Pennington? Cast away by the Jets, he has become Miami's most successful quarterback since Dan Marino left, and a win in Kansas City will set him up for a chance to secure the division title in his old home stadium. In this one, against the Chiefs' 30th-ranked run defense, Pennington should just let Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown do the real work.

BUCS over Chargers: In two weeks, Tampa Bay has gone from having a shot at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs to floating just inside the playoff bubble in the competitive NFC. Lose to San Diego, and the Bucs are in big trouble. Fortunately, Tampa Bay is a much different team at home -- 6-0, than they are on the road, and both of their remaining games are in the comfy surroundings of Raymond James Stadium.

BRONCOS over Bills: We've seen it before, and we're seeing it again with Buffalo (with Washington, too, come to think of it): A team that is not really so bad, that often plays well enough to win, but that week in and week out stumbles into some new game-changing disaster. With Marshawn Lynch picking up his game late in the season, Buffalo has a good chance to control the ball against Denver and its porous run defense, but you know the Bills will find a way to lose it in the end.

SEAHAWKS over Jets: Mike Holmgren coaches his last regular-season home game, and look at who's coming to town: Brett Favre and the Jets. It took J.P. Losman to save the Jets from self destruction at home last week; this week they face Seneca Wallace, who has not shown Losman's tendency to give the ball away. The Seahawks are playing much better football, and the Jets are pressing -- look out for a big upset.

Texans over RAIDERS: Speaking of noncontending teams that are playing good football, how about Houston? No team in need of a win would want to face them right now; good thing winning is of no consequence to the Raiders. Chicago should look out, though, in Week 17.

VIKINGS over Falcons: I love games where strength meets strength, and we have such a game here, as the number-one run offense in the NFL (Atlanta) meets the number-one run defense. Minnesota's fearsome front will be weakened by the loss of Pat Williams, but it should still be enough to wreak havoc on the Falcons, who like all NFC South teams are shaky on the road. Tarvaris Jackson has a good chance to keep his hot streak rolling against the league's 23rd-ranked pass defense -- if Brad Childress does the right thing and starts Jackson over Frerotte.

Eagles over REDSKINS: Back in Week 5, Washington stormed back from a 14-0 hole to beat the Eagles in Philadelphia. That was the last really impressive game the Redskins played this season. Now they are a team in complete free-fall, while the Eagles are named by some as the best team (right now) in the NFL. If Philly wins this one and Minnesota beats Atlanta (or San Diego upsets Tampa Bay), the Eagles find themselves one home win over the Cowboys (their most hated rival) away from returning to the playoffs. Eagles-Cowboys in Week 17 with the playoffs on the line is too good to pick against.

Panthers over GIANTS: Here we have two teams that mirror each other -- from their identical 11-3 records to their explosive rushing attacks (ranked number two and number four in the NFL) to their receivers named Steve Smith. The difference is, Carolina is playing its best football of the season right now, and the Giants suddenly look lost. They could turn it around at home on national TV, but I thought they'd do that last week. Fool me once...

BEARS over Packers: The Bears get a chance to avenge their worst loss of the season, a 37-3 thumping in Green Bay back in Week 11. Since that game, the Packers have lost four straight and fallen out of the playoff picture, while Chicago has won three out of four and kept itself in the thick of the discussion. The Bears aren't going to the postseason, the way I see it, but it won't be because they lost this one.

 Tags  Anquan Boldin Arizona Cardinals Football Today Kurt Warner Larry Fitzgerald Matt Cassel Wes Welker

---