Projo Pats Blog

Football Today -- Colts in the Super Bowl? Don't bet against it

12:04 PM Fri, Dec 19, 2008 |
By Mike McDermott    Email this author |   Email this entry

colts1219.jpgThe Indianapolis Colts officially closed one door to the playoffs for the Patriots, beating the Jacksonville Jaguars and clinching one of the AFC's two wild-card spots. The Colts have now made the playoffs seven seasons in a row, a remarkable accomplishment in this era of the NFL.

A lot of people still don't seem to be taking Indianapolis seriously. They're still pretty soft on defense -- particularly against the run -- and some of their star players have shown signs of age (Marvin Harrison) or premature decline (Joseph Addai). To this I ask these questions: Is anyone really playing any better than the Colts? And is anyone playing better than Peyton Manning?

Indianapolis has now won eight games in a row. While some of those victories -- like last week's surprisingly close win over Detroit, and last night's game in Jacksonville -- have not been particularly impressive, others have been very much so, like the Colts' win in Pittsburgh back in November. The streaking Steelers are the favorites right now in the AFC, particularly with Tennessee crashing back to earth, but questions still surround the Pittsburgh offense.

That Pittsburgh defense is, of course, phenomenal, but Manning is the one man who has really solved it this season. While Indianapolis failed (like every other Pittsburgh opponent failed) to amass 300 yards of total offense against the Steelers, Manning did throw for three touchdowns and no interceptions in the Colts' 24-20 victory at Heinz Field. In fact, throw out one surprisingly awful game against Cleveland late last month, and Manning has thrown 16 touchdowns against one interception over his last seven games. And give the Colts' defense credit, too -- for all its weaknesses, it allows just 19.9 points per game, which is one of the top 10 averages in the league. And the fact that the Colts have given up just six passing touchdowns over 15 games is remarkable in the modern NFL.

There are also two intangible things that I like about the Colts. For all of their recent dominance, Indianapolis won its only Super Bowl after a 2006 season in which the Colts were largely overlooked, despite a 12-4 record. Indianapolis has also shown during its recent run that it has developed the ability to always find a way to win. The Colts should have lost to the Patriots, they should have lost to the Texans, they could very easily have lost to the Lions or the Jaguars. But in each case, those other teams made key mistakes late, which the Colts did not make. You could call this luck, or you could call it something else.

This isn't a prediction, but more of a warning: Don't count Indianapolis out. There is no team in the NFL that is an easy pick to beat the Colts with Manning playing this well.

CONFLICTED FEELINGS? Manning's head coach, Tony Dungy, said after last night's game that Manning had given an MVP performance (Fox Sports) -- and certainly Manning is very much a candidate to win the award. But just hours before the game, Dungy said that the MVP should actually go to Steelers linebacker James Harrison (Pro Football Talk).

CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC: With the Colts in, the Patriots' season now rests partly on how Tony Romo plays through his back injury on Saturday night against Baltimore. Romo returned to full participation in Cowboys practice yesterday, and he says that if he does not experience any setback, he should be OK to go (Dallas Morning News).

GOOD NEWS, MAYBE: Matt Light is going to practice today after missing the last two days because of a shoulder injury (Boston.com).

THE REAL SMASH AND DASH: LenDale White upped the ante in the odd rivalry between the backfields in Tennessee and Carolina. The Titans' White, who along with rookie Chris Johnson lays claim to the "Smash and Dash" nickname, sent "Smash and Dash" T-shirts to the Panthers' DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the combo that is now perhaps more famously known by the same name (Gaston Gazette).

I'VE MADE MY DECISION, BUT I MAY NOT STICK TO IT: Vikings coach Brad Childress has named Tarvaris Jackson his Week 16 starter, but still does not rule out the possibility of reinserting Gus Frerotte in Week 17 (Minneapolis Star Tribune).

FUTURE ON THE LINE: Not only is Kyle Orton playing to try to get his Bears into the playoffs, he's apparently playing to earn the starting quarterback job next season (Chicago Tribune).

NEARING HIS RETURN: The Denver Broncos probably have the worst defense of all playoff-bound teams, but it would help a lot to get Champ Bailey back. The star cornerback, injured seven weeks ago against the Patriots, is optimistic that he can play on Sunday, when the Broncos host Buffalo with a chance to lock up the division title (Rocky Mountain News).

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