Peter King, who is one of the most knowledgeable pro football writers in the business, regularly writes a piece for Sports Illustrated called "Things I Think I Think."

I'd like to know what King was thinking when he picked the Patriots to beat the Bears in Super Bowl XLIV as one of his predictions in SI's 2009 Pro Football Preview issue, which will be on newstands Wednesday.

I didn't pick the Pats last year to repeat as AFC champs, and I certainly won't be picking them to win a fourth NFL title this season.

Defense wins championships. Which is why the Pats lost Super Bowl XLII, when they couldn't stop the Giants from driving 83 yards in the final two minutes to the winning touchdown, and also why they lost the AFC championship game at Indianapolis in 2006, when the Colts came from behind with a long, late-game, TD march.

Both cornerbacks from New England's undefeated season in 2007 now are in Philadelphia, although it should be remembered -- albeit painfully -- that Asante Samuel failed to hang on to what should have been an interception on the Giants' winning TD drive in Super Bowl XLII, after which New York's Plaxico Burress easily eluded Ellis Hobbs to make the game-winning catch in the end zone.

Replacing Hobbs and Samuel are 34-year-old Shawn Springs, once a top-notch DB, but now past his prime, and Leigh Bodden, who started last year for the lowly Lions, intercepting just one pass in 16 games.

As shaky as the New England secondary appears to be, the situation at linebacker is even worse.

Adalius Thomas now is 32 and missed seven games last year with a broken arm. Jerod Mayo was outstanding last season as a rookie, becoming only the second player in Patriots history (CB Michael Haynes was the other, in 1976) to be voted AFC defensive rookie of the year after leading the team in tackles. But the other two starters, now that Tedy Bruschi has retired and Mike Vrabel has been traded to Kansas City, are Pierre Woods and Gary Guyton -- neither of whom was drafted out of college.

Also, in picking the Pats, King is counting on superstar QBTom Brady playing16 games, or close to that number. Given the way he's been battered in the preseason, and the fact that every team New England plays is likely to blitz Brady frequently, it seems overly optimistic to expect the 32-year-old Tom Terrific to go through the '09 season unscathed, especially given that he's coming off surgery for the knee injury that sidelined virtually all of last year..